As 12 teams head to the 2024 MLB playoffs, 18 other teams are on the outside looking in.
What happened? What comes next? These are the first questions teams must ask when the postseason derby begins without them and their offseason starts sooner than they desired. For the eliminated teams, we'll get a jump on the hot stove part of the calendar, asking -- and attempting to answer -- those questions for them.
Here's why each of the 18 teams isn't playing this October -- and what they can do to change that in 2025.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Why the Diamondbacks are sitting out October: They picked the wrong year to be just pretty good
What can they do to fix it? By its very nature, this approach for launching teams into their hot stove season is a kind of "what went wrong" exercise. For a team like Arizona, which worked out at Chase Field on Monday not knowing if it was prepping for a celebration or a farewell, it's a little unfair. The Diamondbacks might have made the World Series last year, but this year's non-playoff version was a stronger team. Arizona won five more games than 2023 and, whereas last year's club was outscored by 15 runs, this one was plus-98. In this playoff format, it's really hard to win 89 games and miss the postseason. Missing the playoffs means, by definition, you're at best the seventh-best team in your league. That's what happened to the 2024 Diamondbacks. Only the Seattle Mariners can commiserate: The 2018 and 2021 M's are the only other teams -- ever -- to finish seventh in a league while winning at least 89 games. The Diamondbacks' rotation was battered by injuries to Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery and Drey Jameson. They just need their pitchers to heal, because their trend arrow remains pointed in the right direction.
Boston Red Sox
Why the Red Sox are sitting out October: Too many injuries
What can they do to fix it? Let's face it, after three straight seasons of perfect mediocrity, the impatient Boston fan base isn't going to accept bad injury luck as any kind of an excuse. From Lucas Giolito, Garrett Whitlock and Trevor Story early on, to Rafael Devers late, the Red Sox ranked as one of baseball's most oft-injured clubs all season. Assuming there is no systemic explanation for this, Boston can hope for a regression in this department as it builds its 2025 roster. The Red Sox should have money to spend and have a deep group of prospects, so Craig Breslow has a lot of avenues in which to infuse the roster. Better health, in addition to prospect graduations, should mean better depth. Still, if Boston wants to escape the dreaded middle, a game-changing thumper for the lineup and a top-of-the-rotation starter ought to lead the shopping list.
Chicago Cubs
Why the Cubs are sitting out October: Too many close losses
What can they do to fix it? The Jekyll and Hyde routine of the Cubs' offense was perplexing, but simply put, if the Cubs had won more close games, they would be in wild-card position. An uncanny ability to outperform expectations in close encounters was a big factor in Chicago's decision to woo manager Craig Counsell away from Milwaukee with a record contract. So, too, was his ability to manage bullpens. As if we needed the reminder, there is only so much a manager can do, and that was evident for Counsell's first Cubs team. The Cubs need more and better relievers, but in particular they need a true bullpen ace. For all his skill in running a pen, one thing Counsell always had in Milwaukee was a high-leverage hammer at the back of it. He did not have that in Chicago this season. It's not the only reason just two teams suffered more one-run defeats than Chicago, but it sure didn't help. The prescription: Get a closer who can bring it all into focus.
Chicago White Sox
Why the White Sox are sitting out October: An all-systems failure
What can they do to fix it? This will take some time. Perhaps a lot of time. South Siders might point to division rival Kansas City as a team that jumped from 106 losses to playoff contention, but that's a hard act to follow. Also, the Royals were self-correcting in trying to salvage a rebuild in progress that had gone bad. The White Sox are just starting down that path. There are good things happening in the minors, but as GM Chris Getz and his staff become more experienced in their roles, the worst thing they could do is grow impatient. Luckily for them, the plan to keep the payroll low in 2025 means they have little choice but to focus on internal development.
Cincinnati Reds
Why the Reds are sitting out October: Not scoring enough runs
What can they do to fix it? Cincinnati plays in a charming bandbox on the banks of the Ohio River, so as Reds fans enjoy the views and all those homers flying out of the park, they might miss the fact that the offense just wasn't very good. Thanks to the venue, the Reds scored at precisely the MLB average, but were bottom-five in OPS+, which adjusts for park. Another factor masking this reality is that the Reds do a lot of exciting stuff, with Elly De La Cruz leading the way. Only Milwaukee has a better team power-speed number. But Cincinnati needs hitters whose power plays away from Great American Small-park, who can get the bat on the ball and, most importantly, who will get on base. The Reds could use a middle-of-the-order masher, but who couldn't? Assuming they aren't going to splurge for such a player, they would do well to target well-rounded, middle-tier professional batsmen.
Colorado Rockies
Why the Rockies are sitting out October: They don't know what they're doing
What can they do to fix it? Make better decisions, or find someone who can. The Rockies have six players earning salaries of $10 million or more in 2024. Those six have combined for 2.9 bWAR this season. Their only All-Star, Ryan McMahon, accounts for 2.5 of that figure. Colorado has had promising seasons at other salary levels -- Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar top that list. But the Rockies are going nowhere until their production hierarchy has some kind of correlation to its payroll hierarchy. You can say that the Monforts should spend more and, given the level of fan support in Denver, they should. But when they spend, it's got to make sense. Otherwise you're left with this: a team with no apparent foundation.
Los Angeles Angels
Why the Angels are sitting out October: No direction
What can they do to fix it? For the first four years of the current decade, the Angels featured the best player in the sport, Shohei Ohtani. For the entirety of his career, they've featured the best player of the 2010s, and the best in franchise history, Mike Trout. The Angels have won 71.8 games for every 162 they've played this decade. It's the worst figure in franchise history, below the 76.3 wins/162 the Angels posted in the 1960s, when they were an expansion team. For this to change, the Angels need to ask the right questions but, at the moment, it's very difficult to narrow them down to a few action items. Determining if it is realistic to return to contention while Trout is still a viable regular is an inquiry that probably ought to be made, sooner than later.
Miami Marlins
Why the Marlins are sitting out October: Rotation injuries
What can they do to fix it? Get healthy. That's really all there is to it. One season after the Marlins' starting pitching carried them to just the fourth postseason appearance in franchise history, 19 different pitchers made starts in 2024. No one made more than 21. The end-of-the-season IL looks like an offseason depth chart looking ahead to 2025: Sandy Alcantara, Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Eury Perez and Max Meyer. Miami has had some nice play from young position players late in the season and can augment that with targeted lineup additions this winter. If the rotation comes back healthy and strong, this year's plummet doesn't have to turn into a multiseason malaise.
Minnesota Twins
Why the Twins are sitting out October: A complete collapse of the offense.
What can they do to fix it? A collapse by the offense during the 23-game, post-Labor Day skid sank Minnesota's once-strong playoff probabilities. The Twins ranked 29th in team OPS during the slump and stole just three bases, continuing a preference that has seen Minnesota stubbornly refuse to run at a time when stolen base rates are exploding. Since the ball wasn't leaving the yard during the skid either, there just wasn't anything happening. The ongoing inability of the Twins' best hitters -- Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton -- to stay on the field at all, much less at the same time, is a continuing problem. To an extent, though, that's out of the Twins' control. More within their grasp is the adoption of an approach to offense that better takes advantage of the way the game is being played right now.
Oakland Athletics
Why the Athletics are sitting out October: Not enough good players
What can they do to fix it? Well, they have more good players than they did at this time last season. The Athletics improved by more than 100 winning percentage points over last season's 112-loss debacle. If not for everything about this franchise being framed around its abandonment of Oakland, we'd be looking at this as a feel-good season. Add a few key additions and you might have genuine excitement. Let's face it, though, this team is not about to spend money. At the very least, the Athletics can hold onto what they have while continuing to add at the margins. Through it all, the organization has been able to find and develop players until they've pooled enough of them to open a short window of contention. They are headed toward another phase of that, though perhaps not by next season.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Why the Pirates are sitting out October: Heartlessness
What can they do to fix it? No, the issue we're highlighting here isn't directly related to Pittsburgh's decision to part ways with Rowdy Tellez when he was four plate appearances away from a performance bonus, though you might see it working on that level. But keeping things more on an on-the-field level, we're talking about the heart of the lineup, or lack of one. Certainly Tellez was part of that, but, as a collective, Pittsburgh's three-through-six hitters this season have a .676 OPS, better than only the White Sox and Angels. There are too many good things happening on this roster to allow that to continue. Though it probably will, because the easy solution is to make a couple of real investments via free agency -- and that's not the Pirates' way.
San Francisco Giants
Why the Giants are sitting out October: Too much mediocrity
What can they do to fix it? We want to be as specific as we can with these diagnoses and possible solutions. For a team like the Giants, it's really hard to do. Whether you're looking at won-loss record, run differential or any other statistical facet of the game, this is a middling team. While we might decry the current playoff format as being too forgiving of mediocrity, you really can't get anywhere by being exactly mediocre. More than anything, the Giants' current era lacks any clear defining traits, building rosters generally devoid of clear strengths or weaknesses, giving them a perpetually high floor and low ceiling. The solution? Saying the Giants should sign a franchise player is easy; we do that every year. But it really is the obvious move.
Seattle Mariners
Why the Mariners are sitting out October: No O
What can they do to fix it? The Mariners, for all their lack of offense, still homered at a better-than-league-average rate. But when you hit in the .220s and lead the league in whiffs, all that really means is a lot of solo home runs. Seattle led the majors in three true-outcomes percentage and that approach is not only not working, it's counter to the direction the game is going. The Mariners have the pitching. Build on that by maxing out on speed and defense. It's worth a try, because Mariners fans have seen too much of this style of offense.
St. Louis Cardinals
Why the Cardinals are sitting out October: Aging stars
What can they do to fix it? The Cardinals are nothing if not a disciplined ballclub. When they go outside the organization to make a splash, they need those investments to pay off. When it comes to Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, those moves have paid off, and where St. Louis has come up short, it hasn't been their fault. Until 2024. The Cardinals climbed back over .500 this season after their 2023 tumble and did so even though Goldschmidt and Arenado both had OPS+ marks below league average. Representative seasons from that duo at the plate would have almost certainly put the Cardinals in the midst of the playoff picture. Arenado is on the books for a few years yet, but Goldy hits free agency this winter. The first question the Cardinals have to answer is whether or not 2024 was the death knell of Goldschmidt's time as an elite player.
Tampa Bay Rays
Why the Rays are sitting out October: Their injury-ravaged rotation
What can they do to fix it? Mostly, the Rays just need to sit tight. Tampa Bay did its heavy lifting at the deadline, and with the pitching getting largely healthy by next season, the Rays are positioned to challenge in the AL East once again. Bigger picture, even in an era of rampant pitcher injuries, the Rays stand out in that area -- and not in a good way. Tampa Bay remains one of the game's most advanced operations and a tremendous influence around the league. If there is a way to innovate -- positively -- in this department, the Rays should put some of their analysts and development specialists on the job.
Texas Rangers
Why the Rangers are sitting out October: An underperforming offense
What can they do to fix it? Like a number of other 2023 playoff teams, the Rangers battled a surfeit of pitching injuries this season and best-case-scenarios related to the rotation never came close to materializing. Still, if the Rangers' offense had lived up to forecasts, Texas would have been a bigger part of the playoff derby. Most of Texas' looming free agent departures will come from the pitching staff, but key determinations have to be made about the offense as well. Better injury luck for young regulars Josh Jung and Evan Carter will help, as will growth from Wyatt Langford and Justin Foscue. At the same time, the Rangers have to decide whether they should or can upgrade from Adolis Garcia, whose OBP is increasingly problematic, or Nathaniel Lowe, a solid hitter whose .400-ish slugging needs to be better.
Toronto Blue Jays
Why the Blue Jays are sitting out October: Well, it's not Vladdy's fault
What can they do to fix it? Last year, the Blue Jays were a playoff team, even though Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had his second straight pedestrian season. It seemed that if Guerrero could return to his former star-level production, the Jays could challenge the Yankees and Orioles in the AL East. Well, Guerrero did return to star-level production and everything else went wrong. Now the big-picture assessment must be made: Can the Blue Jays build around the Guerrero/Bo Bichette/Alejandro Kirk core quickly enough to keep them from musing about greener pastures? There's no easy answer here. This winter is a crossroads moment for this version of the Blue Jays.
Washington Nationals
Why the Nationals are sitting out October: They're not ready for prime time
What can they do to fix it? The Nationals' rebuild hasn't taken hold just yet, but you can see the plan taking root. And this thing might be ready to take off. Assuming the issues that got CJ Abrams shipped to the minors don't linger, the Nationals will have long-term solutions in place at each position up the middle and both corner outfield slots, just for starters. And while we shouldn't expect the Nationals to go wild in free agency, they probably could if ownership signed off on it. With Patrick Corbin's contract expiring, Washington has a wide-open payroll outlook. That's always a good thing, but particularly when you have a foundation of ascending talent in place. It's becoming fun again in D.C.