We're nearly through Week 6 of the 2024 NFL regular season, and although the postseason is months away, we're taking an early look at the current playoff picture and the road to Super Bowl LIX.
Which teams are already in good shape? Which still have a lot of work to do to ultimately get into the 14-team field? We used ESPN's Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences. We included updated odds for every team to make the postseason, clinch its division and even make the Super Bowl. Here's everything you need right now.
Last update: Oct. 14 at 9:45 a.m. ET
Jump to a conference:
AFC | NFC
Projecting the AFC playoff field
Three teams in the NFL have a 90% or better chance to make the playoffs, and they all play in the AFC. The Chiefs are over 99%, the Ravens are at 94% and the Texans sit at 93%.
Division races in the AFC might not be super exciting down the stretch, too. The Chiefs are at 94% to win the AFC West, while the Texans are 83% to claim the AFC South. Then the Ravens are 72% in the AFC North, while the Bills remain at 71% in the AFC East.
The Patriots sit at the bottom of the conference in playoff chances (less than 1%), but the Browns (3%) and Jaguars (4%) are right there with them.
Projecting the NFC playoff field
Two NFC North teams lead the conference here -- the Lions have 88% odds to make the postseason, and the Vikings are right behind them at 86%. Could we see all four NFC North teams in the playoffs? The Bears (43%) have the lowest chances of the four teams. (The Packers are 64%.)
Remember when the Saints had the best chances to make the playoffs after Week 2? They were 81%. Now? Just 15%! And check out the Cowboys all the way down at 18% after falling to 3-3.
The Panthers are at the bottom of the NFL in odds to make the playoffs, checking in with less than a 1% chance.
NFL playoff schedule
Jan. 11-13: Wild-card round
Jan. 18-19: Divisional round
Jan. 26: AFC and NFC championship games
Feb. 9: Super Bowl LIX (in New Orleans)